Weather updates

Following my report of predictions of floods for London and a worse-than-average hurricane season, there has been some refinement in both regards. Piers has updated his forecasts for August (attached), though this has not resulted in any major changes - he is still warning strongly of more floods, including for London.

Bishop Hill, meanwhile, has spotted a FoxNews report that picked up a report from the NOAA that the Pacific was so far experiencing ENSO-Neutral conditions, though there was a good chance this would swing towards La Niña conditions this month. This has a marginal impact on expectations for the hurricane season. La Niña should be stronger than ENSO-Neutral, but they were allowing for the possibility of either, so this probably doesn't serve much purpose other than to provide a partial explanation for why June and July were not particularly lively. But as the Bishop points out, it does strongly contradict what the BBC, the Met. Office and others have been telling us about the reasons for our bad weather.