A Tory government by 2013?

I get a distinct feeling that the Tories are rapidly moving back to square one at the moment. It may well be too early to say with any conviction that they are back in Hague/IDS/Howard territory, but the signs are there. They have had a miserable month with the grammar schools debate, the rise of Gordon and ever bubbling worry that no one wants to be a Tory Mayor (and that includes Greg Dyke, as we all found out much to the red faces at CCHQ). As I have said before, if Cameron just wants to mimic Blair and the New Labour blueprint, the electorate will be left with a straight choice between the incumbent and the slightly nasty party with a load of unrecognisable figures. And there will be only one winner in that race – Mr Brown. At this point in the game the Tories should be polling well in to the double figures ahead of Labour. Instead they are just 2% ahead according to YouGov.

Ok, this has been a bad month and when it became sure that Blair was to leave, Labour were likely to get a boost in the polls. To put this in perspective, however, take a look how the Labour were doing in 1995 (two years before their victory in 1997) compared to the Tories now (probably two years before the next election). Labour at their peak were polling in the region of 61% and went on to win the election with 44% - a drop of 17% between mid term polls and election result. In fact, if you look at any mid-term opposition party that then went on to win the next election the reading becomes pretty worrying for the Tories:

1959-64, Lab, 50% (won subsequent election with 45%)
1966-70, Con, 56% (46%)
1970-74, Lab, 50% (38%)
1974-79, Con, 53% (45%)
1992-97, Lab, 61% (44%)

With two years to go, if Cameron was to win he would be doing far worse now than any predecessor had done. The highest approval rating he has achieved being in low 40s. But why is this? Labour has been savaged in the media over Iraq. They have been hit by scandals ranging from cash for peerages to Prescott getting is leg over with his secretary. The NHS has become the weapon of choice for Labour bashers. The one constant has been the perception of a buoyant economy – “it’s the economy, stupid”. So unless the economy takes a crash of Black Wednesday proportions, the Tories are going to have to up their game considerably.

You have to worrying that the Tory message is, well, off message. The heir to Blair is Brown I'm afraid Dave - you need to come up with a few ideas and sharpish. What doesn’t help is saying one thing and doing another. One of the all time quick u-turns happened over the weekend – blink and you would have missed it. The Tories floated the idea of scrapping free museums. By yesterday the idea was swept under the carpet. All it did was add to perception that the Tories are scared to offend and won’t take risks. Where are the big ideas, Dave? Well today, Cameron will once again re-launch the Conservative party with the slogan "Our Society, Your Life". The message will be that "people know best" and should be left to control their own lives, in contrast to the interfering "big government" policies of the incoming Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Here, here! But why do their policies not reflect this? Is this just more sound bites with no actual substance?

 

We’ve been promised no tax cuts. We have not heard anything significant about the NHS. Education will stay the same. There has been no line in reducing the size of the public sector. And the reason the polls are not going as well as they should be is because no one actually knows what the hell Cameron actually believes. He is a good talker, but the polls suggest that Brown is perceived as more intellectual and trustworthy. So show us Cameron that you really are committed to small government, free market and consumer choice.  Be distinct from the current status quo of government.  Because unless the electorate (and the rest of your party) don’t start to get it soon, two years fly by and it will be another four or five before your party gets another chance.